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Friday, March 4, 2011

Jasmine Revolution?

I have not written anything until now, because not sure what to write.

The knowns:
  • The revolutions in the Arab World are a worry to the Chinese Government Leadership
  • China does not want a repeat of Tianamen Square.
  • China has much more effective control over the Internet in China through the Great Firewall and an army of 50 cent bloggers (people who blog/tweet/microblog with a positive spin for the Chinese government - visit the Economist.com and any article on China to see how this perverts web 2.0 - also starting to become a joke since its so obvious).
  • China does not allow uncensored Internet Searches within China (which is why Google is finally no longer in China)
  • Using outside of China services,  people in China are being asked to just stroll around a particular place as a form of protest.
  • Known dissidents within China are being taken into custody.
  • China is attempting to restrict coverage by foreign journalists.  One got roughed up recently.
  • Street Sweepers with water are being used as a way to prevent crowds from forming.
  • China does not have the unemployment issue that the Arab countries have, with the exception of college graduates (Army of Ants)
  • China does have a corruption issue as do the Arab countries.
  • China's government has studied the fall of the Soviet Union and other revolutions in order to avoid a similar fate.
  • The word Jasmine can no longer be searched from within China.
  • China no longer reports the number of protests/demonstrations within China.  87,000 in 2005.  74,000 in 2004.  58,000 in 2003.
  • China has sent a ship and a plane to get Chinese out of Libya.  There were 30,000 working there.  Basically the Chinese goverment did not want to be accused of not doing enough to get its citizens out.
My take - China has a very efficient security system and I don't expect any major changes as long as Economic Growth continues and corruption is kept at a reasonable level.

References:

Calls for subtle protests have China security forces in tizzy - LA Times
China's foreign policy: Setting sail for Libya - Economist
China's pre-emptive crackdown: The people doth not protest - Economist

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