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Sunday, October 25, 2009

Red Dawn 2010 with China as the Invader

I saw the original Red Dawn in 1984 opening night and the audience cheered when the Russian translator was killed. The tanks and BMP's they used were amazing on the accuracy. I saw it on discount recently and bought it to show my daughter and have a talk about the times that produced this movie and the Cold War ideology and fear of the Soviet Union at the time.

Now a new Red Dawn is being produced with the Chinese as the invaders.

I"ll b honest - I just don't see China in the role of invading the US. Taiwan, that is a threat. Teaching lessons to countries close to it - India and Vietnam has also been done. Building up a the military is along term goal that was shown in the recent China's Anniversary parade.

But invading the US?

If you want to do what if scenarios may be theoretically possible in 25 plus years if everything went wrong for the US (great Depression in the US that somehow does not affect China, so China's economy continues to grow and the US collapses). But the truth is the US and China is so intertwined with our economy that is just not possible.

Another scenario is a coup or new leadership that is bent on replicating the outbound spread of communism as the old Soviet Union did. Again, China is much more interested in economics now, rather than conquering nations. Conquering neighbors is more headache than it used to be and actually costs money, instead of makes the country money. And with the Chinese people being promised and expecting a better standard of living, I don't see China spending twisting their economy as the Soviet Union with the focus being on the military that resulted in a poor economy, and did not produce Military equipment as good as the US.

A third scenario is some new technology upsets the military balance with the US and China. But of the ones possible I don't see how this would allow for a Chinese invasion of the Us. An interesting one is a anti-carrier ballistic missile developed after President Clinton had 2 US carriers sail near Taiwan that changes the situation on defending Taiwan. Question is what US technology is going to counter this one (none yet).



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