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Monday, August 18, 2014

Cycles or Stages of Chinese History

Interesting article worth a read, and don't forget the comments! My understanding of the article is that China is using this model with the US and other countries, but China is moving too quickly to stage 3 as seen in the South China Sea. My belief is China is doing a cabbage policy and being driven more by internal issues.

The Cycle / Stages per the article:

  1. Start by conceding all that must be conceded to the superior power including tribute, in order to avoid damage and obtain whatever forbearance is offered. But this in itself entangles the ruling class of the still-superior power in webs of material dependence that reduce its independent vitality and strength.
  2. Offer equality in a privileged bipolarity that excludes all lesser powers, or “G-2” in current parlance. That neutralizes the still powerful Other party, and isolates the manipulated soon-to-be former equal from all its potential allies, preventing from balancing China with a coalition.
  3. Finally, when the formerly superior power has been weakened enough, withdraw all tokens of equality and impose subordination.

The Cycles—or Stages—of Chinese History by Edward Luttwak, Hoover Institute



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