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Box Office China's Potential
Great article talking about why there have been so many horrible movies recently. The comments are worth a read.
Box Office Meltdown: Hollywood Races to Win Back Summer Crowds - Variety
Key Points:
- I did not realize the Hollywood studios only get 50% of what they usually get in the US. In the US they get 50% of the gross. Theaters in the US make their money from concessions.
- China's Box Office in 2017 should be larger than the US Box Office.
- Disney had 4 of the 5 highest grossing films for 2016.
- Disney has 31% domestic market share.
- Five films were responsible for 25% of domestic sales.
- Increasing ticket prices have disguised falling theater attendance.
Labels: china economy, movies
8 I Don't Knows - China's Devaluation
My last blog post was on my 10 Educated SWAG's, I mean Guesses on China's Devaluation.
Here is stuff I wonder about.
- What impact will the devaluation have on capital outflows from China? Will it increase it, or decrease it? What is causing the outflows?
- What will China's devaluation have on properties in the US?
- Will the devaluation cause inflation or deflation in China?
- Will the devaluation cause inflation or deflation in the US?
- What impact will China's devaluation have on the Chinese economy?
- How much further will China devalue their currency? Currently at 4.5%.
- Will China's devaluation lead to a currency crises, as happened in 1997?
- Will this devaluation hurt or help the Yuan becoming a reserve currency?
Labels: china economy, Chinese Economics
10 Guesses on China's Devaluation
China's Devaluation - What will happen?
There is a lot of guessing out there on what will happen. Most are probably wrong. My 10 Ten Educated Guesses:
- Currency War - with countries doing a race to the bottom. Vietnam, Japan, and others seem to be following China. China is calling the devaluation a "Convenient Reform" The first day was 2%, and currently it's 4.65, back to 2011 July levels. ZeroHedge is warning of a Current War. Vietnam devalued it's currency, as has Japan.
- China had tied their currency to the US Dollar, which had become too strong and this was hurting exports to areas with weaker currencies, such as the Euro zone.
- China will devalue their currency more.
- The US is not going to increase interest rates from basically Zero, or will only be doing a symbolic amount.
- China's leadership needs continued strong growth in China's economy, and they believe the only way is through exports.
- The Fed Reserve will probably start QE again. China seems to be selling US bonds. The US has little influence they are willing to use for influencing China. China wants the Yuan to become a reserve currency, so this may moderate the devaluation.
- China will probably emphasize even more of a buy China made goods campaign
- Luxury Goods for US & European sales to China will suffer.
- China's economy is worse than the official figures from China. The question is how much worse. The contract between the Chinese government and people, is growth will be high. In exchange, the Chinese people support the government. The historical term for this is Heaven's Mandate.
- China's gold reserves are higher than the official numbers.
Labels: china economy, Chinese Economics
Australia and China Secure Landmark Free Trade Deal
China E-Commerce Opportunities
Apple Using Third Party Site in China
In Hunt for Drug Kingpin, China Shows Southeast Asia Who’s Boss
Wow.
13 Chinese seamen were killed on the Mekong between Laos and Thailand. 920,000 Methamphetamine pills were on the ships. Mr. Naw Kham had 9 members of an elite Thai military unit kill the seamen, since they did not pay protection money. The Meth came from factories in Burma.
Good quote:
“China has its own Monroe Doctrine in the region, and this is the Pancho Villa case of the Mekong,” Mr. Chambers said.
In Hunt for Drug Kingpin, China Shows Southeast Asia Who’s Boss - Via MediaLabels: china economy, china's future, US Chinese Image
Wen’s Wealth - $3 Billion?
China's ghost towns and phantom malls
Apple and China's iPad Naming Rights
Wal-Mart raises its stake in a Chinese e-retailer
China gets approval for Afghanistan oil exploration bid
China Bank Regulator Adviser: Banks Face Growing But Manageable Risks
E-Commerce in China - US Companies
NewEgg and Amazon are both in China! Amazon is the #3 retailer in China.
Forester Research forcasts a 27% compound rate of growth in e-commerce in China from 2010 to 2015.
Risk and Reward - Internet Retailer
With the world’s largest online population, China beckons to North American e-retailers. Labels: china economy
Groupon China Is A Disaster
Great list of what Groupon did wrong in China! The basic error I see is not understanding the market.
Groupon has made many of the classic mistakes that American Internet companies like to keep repeating in China, including but not limited to:
1. Picked the wrong partner (see Is Tencent The Wrong Partner For Groupon In China?);
2. Hired too many foreigners as top management. Foreigners are not all useless (writing as a foreigner who likes to think he is useful), but Groupon had far too many;
3. Staffed up way too fast; you can not efficiently hire hundreds/thousands of qualified Chinese employees in just a few months;
4. Focused too much on hiring bankers and management consultants. In China especially group buying is a very dirty feet-on-the-street, local sales game, and that requires a very different skill set than what you will find in your average consultant or banker;
5. Allowed a competitor to register Groupon.com.cn;
6. Have inadequate financial controls that have contributed to the losses and probably enriched some, just not the main Groupon and Gaopeng shareholders;
7. Mishandled layoffs, leading meaning potential Chinese job candidates to believe that Gaopeng is a toxic company.
From:
Groupon China Is A Disaster -- Will The Company Just Give Up? - Business Insider
My guess is the decision to go into China was more about showing the "huge growth" Groupon has for the IPO. Similar on why Home Depot tried to go into China (growth), and also failed. Labels: china economy
China Has Its Eye On Canada's Oil
The US pipe line for Canadian Oil from tar sands has been controversial and stalled, since the thought its dirty oil. China is willing to build a pipe line to export the oil to China. China's government is very worried about making sure there is enough energy supplied within China, often with little regard to the environmental impact. Coal fired power stations is another example of this.
China Has Its Eye On Canada's Oil - Investors.com Labels: china economy
Wal-Mart Moves to Invest in China Online Retailer
Importing into China
China just changed the threshold for duties for personal goods being sent in to $8. It was $200 to $400 because many Chinese companies were labeling commercial shipments as personal. FedEx, DHL, and UPS are not very happy about the change.
New China Customs Regulations Changes - Postage.com Labels: china economy
Software Makers in China Try Lower Prices to Lure Users Away From Illegal Copies
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